When Will This All Turn Around?

The pundits are all over the place, but it seems that there is some sort of optimistic consensus that the economy will start to look better by sometime next year. Kiplinger's has an index for such a prediction: http://kiplinger.com/businessresource/recovery. And while I think this is a great traditional (and thus conservative) tool for monitoring lagging indicators, I'd argue for a newer approach. Otherwise, we are completely discounting the fact that we may find a truly transformative path toward economic recovery.

I'm more interested in reevaluating our methodology in looking for leading indicators than measuring our lagging ones, in order to better reflect changing values. There was a great article on fool.com about the historical performance of large cap stocks (http://www.fool.com/retirement/general/2009/06/23/its-already-worse-than-the-depression.aspx). On the one hand, the article's observation begs the question of a bottom in the market--even though I predict another year of poor lagging results--but it also raises the possibility of a new kind of growth.

What if we the entrepreneurial class decide to overturn traditional economics by bringing forth an era of immense economic growth coupled with deleveraging. Not only do I believe that we need this for the long term, I also think it's possible with a short-term focus on old school yankee ingenuity. And I think that Gen X is uniquely capable to take on such an ambitious goal. What choice do we really have? More on this later.... including a tie-in to why this should especially concern those of us in the western U.S.